Thursday, January 23, 2014

Stock Investor? Corporate Profits Will Go Up. How? Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius has Four Reasons.

Stocks Investor? Corporate Profits Will Go Up. How? Goldman Sachs Economist Jan Hatzius has Four Reasons.



First, what happened in 2013?
  • Corporate profits strong
  • S&P 500 Profits jumped 11 percent year-over-year
And. 
  • Relatively weak U.S. GDP
  • Relatively weak U.S. Productivity 
  • Weak growth outside of the U.S.
  • Low/Declining inflation

2014?  
  1. Significant pickup in US GDP and productivity growth. 
    • Expect: acceleration 1-1.5 percentage points in 2014 vs. 2013
  2. Better growth outside the US. 
    • Global forecast: Steady
    • Particularly in Europe  and Emerging
  3.  A slight pickup in price inflation. 
    • Inflation likely to stay below Fed's 2 percent target
    • Expect: slight acceleration. Why? "recent weakness in healthcare cost inflation moderates and the output gap diminishes.This should modestly boost topline revenue growth in the corporate sector as well." (BusinessInsider)
  4. Only a modest pickup in wage growth.
    • Historically

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