First, what happened in 2013?
- Corporate profits strong
- S&P 500 Profits jumped 11 percent year-over-year
And.
- Relatively weak U.S. GDP
- Relatively weak U.S. Productivity
- Weak growth outside of the U.S.
- Low/Declining inflation
2014?
- Significant pickup in US GDP and productivity growth.
- Expect: acceleration 1-1.5 percentage points in 2014 vs. 2013
- Better growth outside the US.
- Global forecast: Steady
- Particularly in Europe and Emerging
- A slight pickup in price inflation.
- Inflation likely to stay below Fed's 2 percent target
- Expect: slight acceleration. Why? "recent weakness in healthcare cost inflation moderates and the output gap diminishes.This should modestly boost topline revenue growth in the corporate sector as well." (BusinessInsider)
- Only a modest pickup in wage growth.
- Historically
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